Chris Bosh had a very interesting statement before kicking off the new season. Rocking his out-of-control Mikki Moore style hair, he casually mentioned that he doesn’t care what kind of predictions people make for the Raptors, because none of it means anything. He said last year people never thought Orlando would make the NBA Finals, but they proved everyone wrong.
That is a gross gross understatement.
I spent a bit of time tooling around last years NBA predictions, as in pre-season predictions for the 08-09 team, no one ranked Orlando higher then fourth and in a lot of cases actually had the Wizards beating them for the division title. At the same time, the Pistons were always in the top three (either second or third) and the raptors were floating between 4th and 6th. I know this has been said a million times, but really truly, no one has any idea what’s going to happen this season. For all we know, Shaq could upset the balance in Cleveland so much that they end up in 5th place this year. For all we know, Wade could have an MVP type season and push the Heat up to 3rd or 2nd. For all we know, the Wizards could end up plagued with injuries and not even make the playoffs (oh wait a minute, we do know that’s going to happen).
Hollinger on espn had a very good note about the Raptors this year, which is that it’s lazy for everyone to keep predicted us as 41-41. That’s simply not what’s going to happen because it’s such an unorthodox team, and predicting .500 is just a way of saying “I have no idea what to expect from them.” They will not be .500, they are going to have 55 wins or 15. They have buttloads of offensive firepower, and no defense, and one of those two things will prevail.
And I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking that the 15 is closer to what we should be expecting. For the first few weeks, I can’t help but fear that we’ll see every starter be harangued by all the problems that we thought would hit them: Jose simply can’t handle starting point guards and will be killed defensively by everyone from Chris Paul to Jonny Flynn. Demar DeRozan will be a raw rookie with potential, but not at all be able to break out in his first season. Hedo Turkoglu will be a 30 year old who just earned a huge contract and will play like he just doesn’t care anymore. Chris Bosh will be playing for a max contract and will be looking to bloat his own numbers rather then try to help his team collectively get better. And Andrea Bargnani will take a giant step back and make everyone realize this play at the end of last year was the aberration, and he’s nothing more then a weak European white 7 footer. I see the second unit doing infinitely better then the first unit, and at some point in December Triano will keep in the bench to close out a game against the Kings or Grizzlies and Dave Feschuk will write a long article about how the starters can learn a few things from the bench (which is ridiculous, because of course the bench has the potential to be better against other teams’ benches, that’s not exactly something to write home about). I fear we’ll be 10 games under .500 by trade deadline, and Colangelo will be forced to deal Bosh lest be hung by the court of public opinion, we’ll get back some good prospects and/or expiring contracts and we’ll be back to “planning for the future” again.
That is my fear and it’s completely grounded in reality.
BUT, there will never be a way to silence my hope for this team. I really really hope the potential this team has can shine through, and we see right off the bat that this is team we need them to be: Jose will be injury free, and free to play the game his way, which is as one of the best pass-first guards in the game. Demar DeRozan will play like a ROY candidate, being that athletic and slashing guard we’ve always wanted on this team. Hedo Turkoglu will just pick up where he left off as the eastern conference playoffs MVP and be an almost unguardable 6’10” small forward who can play every position. Chris Bosh will be playing for a max contract and will be looking to show teams he can lead a team to great heights rather then bloat his own numbers. And Andrea Bargnani will finally make that leap that we’ve all known he’s capable of and be worthy of that #1 draft pick that he is. Our second unit will feed off the energy of our starters and will start to gel as one cohesive unit that teams will hate to play against: They either have to deal with the starting unit draining buckets like it’s going out of style, or our bench banging them into a pulp. We’ll shock everyone by coming in 4th or even 3rd in the conference and take the Celtics to 7 games in the second round next year. Bosh will re-up with us, and the young guys will have gotten the kind of experience that will push us even further in 2010.
That is my hope, and it’s entirely possible… but I have to be honest with myself and say the fear has completely pushed itself past the hope in my head.
I fear for another season of disappointment. I fear for another superstar leaving this city in his dust. I fear we’ll continue to look up at the glass ceiling of the NBA and not figure out a way to get through it.
And I hope my Raptors will prove me and everyone else wrong.
That is a gross gross understatement.
I spent a bit of time tooling around last years NBA predictions, as in pre-season predictions for the 08-09 team, no one ranked Orlando higher then fourth and in a lot of cases actually had the Wizards beating them for the division title. At the same time, the Pistons were always in the top three (either second or third) and the raptors were floating between 4th and 6th. I know this has been said a million times, but really truly, no one has any idea what’s going to happen this season. For all we know, Shaq could upset the balance in Cleveland so much that they end up in 5th place this year. For all we know, Wade could have an MVP type season and push the Heat up to 3rd or 2nd. For all we know, the Wizards could end up plagued with injuries and not even make the playoffs (oh wait a minute, we do know that’s going to happen).
Hollinger on espn had a very good note about the Raptors this year, which is that it’s lazy for everyone to keep predicted us as 41-41. That’s simply not what’s going to happen because it’s such an unorthodox team, and predicting .500 is just a way of saying “I have no idea what to expect from them.” They will not be .500, they are going to have 55 wins or 15. They have buttloads of offensive firepower, and no defense, and one of those two things will prevail.
And I’m sure I’m not alone in thinking that the 15 is closer to what we should be expecting. For the first few weeks, I can’t help but fear that we’ll see every starter be harangued by all the problems that we thought would hit them: Jose simply can’t handle starting point guards and will be killed defensively by everyone from Chris Paul to Jonny Flynn. Demar DeRozan will be a raw rookie with potential, but not at all be able to break out in his first season. Hedo Turkoglu will be a 30 year old who just earned a huge contract and will play like he just doesn’t care anymore. Chris Bosh will be playing for a max contract and will be looking to bloat his own numbers rather then try to help his team collectively get better. And Andrea Bargnani will take a giant step back and make everyone realize this play at the end of last year was the aberration, and he’s nothing more then a weak European white 7 footer. I see the second unit doing infinitely better then the first unit, and at some point in December Triano will keep in the bench to close out a game against the Kings or Grizzlies and Dave Feschuk will write a long article about how the starters can learn a few things from the bench (which is ridiculous, because of course the bench has the potential to be better against other teams’ benches, that’s not exactly something to write home about). I fear we’ll be 10 games under .500 by trade deadline, and Colangelo will be forced to deal Bosh lest be hung by the court of public opinion, we’ll get back some good prospects and/or expiring contracts and we’ll be back to “planning for the future” again.
That is my fear and it’s completely grounded in reality.
BUT, there will never be a way to silence my hope for this team. I really really hope the potential this team has can shine through, and we see right off the bat that this is team we need them to be: Jose will be injury free, and free to play the game his way, which is as one of the best pass-first guards in the game. Demar DeRozan will play like a ROY candidate, being that athletic and slashing guard we’ve always wanted on this team. Hedo Turkoglu will just pick up where he left off as the eastern conference playoffs MVP and be an almost unguardable 6’10” small forward who can play every position. Chris Bosh will be playing for a max contract and will be looking to show teams he can lead a team to great heights rather then bloat his own numbers. And Andrea Bargnani will finally make that leap that we’ve all known he’s capable of and be worthy of that #1 draft pick that he is. Our second unit will feed off the energy of our starters and will start to gel as one cohesive unit that teams will hate to play against: They either have to deal with the starting unit draining buckets like it’s going out of style, or our bench banging them into a pulp. We’ll shock everyone by coming in 4th or even 3rd in the conference and take the Celtics to 7 games in the second round next year. Bosh will re-up with us, and the young guys will have gotten the kind of experience that will push us even further in 2010.
That is my hope, and it’s entirely possible… but I have to be honest with myself and say the fear has completely pushed itself past the hope in my head.
I fear for another season of disappointment. I fear for another superstar leaving this city in his dust. I fear we’ll continue to look up at the glass ceiling of the NBA and not figure out a way to get through it.
And I hope my Raptors will prove me and everyone else wrong.
I'm leaning towards hope. My Raptor glass is half full, let's hope it ain't empty by the New Year. Great blog!!
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